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Predicting, explaining and exploring with computer simulations in fluvial geomorphology

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Abstract This paper brings a philosophical perspective on computer simulations in the field of geomorphology. The first part of our analysis presents a general framework within which to interpret and… Click to show full abstract

Abstract This paper brings a philosophical perspective on computer simulations in the field of geomorphology. The first part of our analysis presents a general framework within which to interpret and evaluate the adequacy of simulations models pursuing three broad epistemic goals (modes): prediction, explanation, and exploration. It also explains the diverse relationships existing between the phenomenon of equifinality and each one of these modes. The second part of the paper applies this framework to a case in fluvial geomorphology. This application enables further specification of the three modelling modes and shows how they can work together in the inquiry of natural phenomena. Finally, our analysis looks briefly at the path-dependent nature of model building, which highlights the importance of historical contingencies in model development and further support the pragmatic stance endorsed in the framework.

Keywords: computer simulations; explaining exploring; geomorphology; fluvial geomorphology; predicting explaining

Journal Title: Earth-Science Reviews
Year Published: 2018

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