LAUSR

Abstract Measuring the progress of the circular bioeconomy requires quantifying a range of indicators. Contrary to previous studies that analyzed only a few indicators, we devise a method that can accommodate any number of them. Our objective is to empirically investigate whether the circular bioeconomies in ten selected European Union Member States were progressing or regressing over 2006–2016 as measured by 41 indicators. We model the development of the intra-distribution of the indicators using Markov transition matrices. We find that the ten circular bioeconomies mostly progressed. Moreover, research and development quickly progressed in the private sector but regressed in the public sector, suggesting substitution between them. Our cross-country comparison reveals that Germany is the front-runner in the circular bioeconomy, but circular bioeconomies in Slovakia, Poland, and Latvia also developed quickly.