LAUSR

Abstract Shellfish aquaculture represents a worldwide valuable segment of the aquaculture market, spreading along the Mediterranean coasts, and is sensitive to the still unforeseen, poorly-known effects of climate change. Threats due to temperature rise can threaten the deployment and development of this sector, up until now recognised as the best candidate to mitigate the effects of fishery overexploitation. Here, we investigate the effects of temperature increase on the model species, Mytilus galloprovincialis, measuring outcomes from valve fragility (thickness) and condition index. Evidence of a reduction in the thickness of valves and the modulation condition of the mussels along with temperature increase have been gathered from simulations of a natural temperature gradient changing along latitude (the Italian Peninsula) and temperature risen (mesocosm trial). The obtained results offer a baseline to help the next generation of managers and stakeholders when assessing the reliability and feasibility of shellfish culture in a changing sea that can generate undetected and underestimated impacts on the sector.