LAUSR

Abstract Terrestrial ecosystem vegetation phenological responses to extreme climates have attracted increasing attention due to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events related to global climate change. In this study, we obtained 11 extreme climate indices and end-of-season (EOS) data from 1982 to 2015 to evaluate the effects of spring and summer extreme climate events on the EOS of different vegetation types of Inner Mongolia. The results show that for spring and summer extreme temperature events, the intensity and frequency of extreme temperature events associated with low temperatures were significantly reduced, while those associated with high temperatures were significantly increased, and the change of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) was not obvious. For extreme precipitation events, the intensity (RX1day, Rx5day) showed a decreasing trend. For EOS, there was a delay in the forest, forest steppe, northern typical Ⅱ and southern steppe desert and an advance in other regions. The EOS changes in the desert steppe, forest steppe and typical steppe II were mainly affected by warm days (TX90p); those in the forest and typical steppe I were mainly affected by warm nights (TN90p); and those in the sand desert and steppe desert were mainly affected by the cold indices TN10p and TX10p, respectively. Future predictions of extreme climate events based on the Hurst exponent show that continued increases in the TX90p and TN90p and continued decreases in the TX10p and TN10p will still affect the EOS in future. It is verified that the Hurst exponent can be used to predict future extreme climate event trends in Inner Mongolia. This research enriches our understanding of the factors that influence vegetation phenology and provides a scientific basis for formulating scientific and rational regional vegetation restoration strategies and disaster warning networks.