LAUSR

Abstract Ecological disturbances may result in mortality events that alter biotic communities and ecosystems. In many coastal zones disturbances are increasing, including algal blooms and fish kills. These two disturbances are often related, with blooms releasing toxins or depleting oxygen, ultimately killing fish. Depending on the intensity, duration, and geographic extent of an algal bloom, the fish community can take days to years to recover from disturbances. To explore the relationship among environmental disturbances, sport fish, and forage fish communities, this study examines a non-toxic brown algal bloom (Aureoumbra lagunensis) occurring from December 2015 through March 2016. Using an ensemble modelling framework combining generalized linear models (GLM), Bayesian modelling, and Bayesian structural equation modeling (SEM), this complementary framework helped elucidate complex relationships among environmental variables and the fish community following a disturbance. The algal bloom crashed over a three-day period in March 2016 and resulted in a fish kill when dissolved oxygen concentrations dropped below hypoxic levels (DO