LAUSR

Abstract Mangrove marshes are a significant global ecosystem, finely-tuned to contemporary sea level. As sea level rises the mangrove-to-freshwater ecotone reflects underlying groundwater salinity indicating the transformation of freshwater resources into saltwater unsuitable for consumption or agriculture. Hydrological numerical models can predict this dynamic given sufficient environmental detail, however, detailed data is often lacking. Alternatively, agent-based models can predict landscape vegetation changes and the associated fresh-to-saline water transformation based only on landscape surface features. We apply such a model to the southern tip of the Florida peninsula at the nexus of a metropolis and World Heritage wildlife preserve: the Florida Everglades, to predict ecotone dynamics and aquifer water resources in response to warming climate and rising sea level. The model is based on species-specific behaviors for freshwater grasses and salt-tolerant red mangroves with relevance to global mangrove ecosystems.