LAUSR

Abstract This study involves the initiation of a novel data driven habitat suitability hierarchical approach used for the identification and prediction of suitable regions for Larus relictus a signature waterbird specie of Erdos Larus relictus National Nature Reserve (ELRNNR). This approach was proposed using GIS to incorporate a readily available environmental parameters (NDVI, NDWI, Slope, DEM, Land use, NDBI) used as the Remote sensing (RS) information and the threat factors (road networks, developed buildings and vegetation) used as the vector information to allow us quantitatively describe the habitat suitability for L. relictus. The RS and Vector information were statistically analyzed and ranked before incorporation into thiessen polygon using ArcGIS to produce the final habitat suitability output which was validated using a conventional habitat suitability model (weight applied). A sensitivity analysis conducted to assess the contribution of each parameter to this approach revealed that threat factors (Vector dataset) was the most significant factor. It was also revealed that this approach compared with HSM showed some statistical relationships indicating similar predictions in most region specifically the high and the low suitable regions. From the results, about 8% of the study region was predicted to be highly suitable for this species most of which was situated around the Lake in the region. The southern and northwestern regions covering about 45% of the study region proved to be unsuitable due to the significantly high density of threat factors in those regions.  Compared to other decision making models, this approach possesses some unique qualities like flexibility and autonomy giving its users the options of weight application and reliance on expert opinion when necessary. It is also anticipated towards supporting conservationist and resource managers with the development of strategies or recommendations for sustainably managing the ecosystem to enhance the protection of L. relictus or other waterbird species in the region.