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Does uncertainty affect real activity? Evidence from state-level data

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We use variation in the effect of US-wide or global uncertainty on state-level uncertainty to identify the impact of this shock on real activity. We nd that increases in uncertainty… Click to show full abstract

We use variation in the effect of US-wide or global uncertainty on state-level uncertainty to identify the impact of this shock on real activity. We nd that increases in uncertainty do have an adverse impact on real income, employment and unemployment. Thus, uncertainty shocks can be a source of economic fluctuations.

Keywords: state level; real activity; uncertainty

Journal Title: Economics Letters
Year Published: 2018

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