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A new test of asset return predictability with an unstable predictor

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Abstract This study constructs predictive regressions in which the predictable variable exhibits a level shift at some unknown date. We establish novel procedures to test asset return predictability via empirical… Click to show full abstract

Abstract This study constructs predictive regressions in which the predictable variable exhibits a level shift at some unknown date. We establish novel procedures to test asset return predictability via empirical likelihood (EL) methods based on weighted score equations. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that the EL-based tests perform well in terms of size and power in finite samples.

Keywords: return predictability; asset return; test asset

Journal Title: Economics Letters
Year Published: 2020

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