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Unemployment dynamics in emerging countries: Monetary policy and external shocks

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This paper quantifies the impact of three key external shocks – external demand, interest rate, and uncertainty shocks – on emerging market economies (EMEs). We find that external shocks have… Click to show full abstract

This paper quantifies the impact of three key external shocks – external demand, interest rate, and uncertainty shocks – on emerging market economies (EMEs). We find that external shocks have a sizeable impact on macroeconomic fluctuations in EMEs and that a considerable fraction of this impact is through the domestic stock market. A decrease in external demand and an increase in external interest rate and uncertainty lead to a higher unemployment rate, lower stock market return, and a depreciation of the domestic currency. The EMEs' monetary policy actively responds to external shocks and dampens their impact on domestic activity.

Keywords: unemployment dynamics; dynamics emerging; external shocks; monetary policy

Journal Title: Economic Modelling
Year Published: 2019

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