LAUSR

Abstract Recreational fishing activity has recovered in the Nerbioi estuary (Northern Spain), after water sanitation and environmental improvement. Recreational fishing is important for the local population; therefore, future management measures that could cause changes in the estuary should also consider the impacts on recreational fishing. Our objective was to analyze the effects that future management decisions and unexpected environmental changes, alone or in combination with climate change effects, can produce in recreational fishing in Nerbioi. The current recreational fishing activity was modelled using a System Dynamics Modelling (SDM). Based on those results, seven future scenarios were simulated. Results suggested that the adoption of future management measures to improve the environmental conditions could lead to additional positive changes for recreational fishing, as after water quality improvement, fish stocks will continue to recover, and these better conditions could attract more fishers and increase their satisfaction. Simulation of temporary and unexpected environmental changes resulted in quick estuarine recovery, without dramatic consequences for recreational fishing. In conclusion, analysing future scenarios on cultural ecosystem services such as recreational fishing, using SDM, can produce valuable information for decision making processes, facilitating the selection between environmental management alternatives.