LAUSR

Abstract Recent analysis of European on-farm data revealed yield instability for winter oilseed rape (WOSR). To better facilitate farmers, the main participants in agriculture, it is of vital importance to interpret how the fluctuation in crop yields and other potential factors may influence farmers’ perspectives and decision-making in the future. However, few studies have explored this aspect. This research aims to focus on farmers′ concerns and anticipated behaviour adjustments for future WOSR production. By using a case study in north-eastern Germany, an online farmer survey was developed to explore the situation regarding past and future production and management of European WOSR. One of the most interesting findings is that the farmer participants anticipated to grow a smaller share of WOSR in the future with a one-year longer rotation gap. Crop yields was suggested to be a major factor influencing this decision change. Farmers are concerned about the future infestation risks of insect pests and fungal diseases in WOSR, thus they expressed potential related adjustments in crop varieties (Turnip yellows virus and clubroot resistant cultivars) and management strategies (e.g., increase insecticide use, adjust rotation rotations). Their behaviours were also highly influenced by the regulation changes at European and national levels, especially regarding glyphosate and fertilizer restrictions. Potential future weather extremes caused by climate changes are also of concerns to farmers. This study helps provide indications for future WOSR production in Europe. However, the findings about farmers’ behavioural inclinations due to WOSR yield instability, regulation adjustments and environmental changes may also be useful for other regions globally that have similar conditions.