LAUSR

Abstract In this paper a new hybrid method has been implemented by combining Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and a new low rank robust kernel based Extreme Learning Machine (RKELM) for solar irradiation forecasting. This hybrid model presents an efficient and effective short term solar irradiation prediction approach using the historical solar irradiation data. The original non-stationary time series data is decomposed into various modes using VMD approach. The proposed VMD-RMWK (VMD based reduced Morlet Wavelet Kernel extreme learning machine) method is used to predict the solar irradiation of an experimental 1 MW solar power plant in Odisha, India. Different time intervals of 15 min, 1 h and 1 day ahead in different weather conditions are considered for forecasting purpose. The VMD technique decomposes the original nonlinear irradiation into a set of Variational Mode Functions (VMFs), and the extracted VMFs are used to train the kernel based robust ELM. Comparison with empirical mode decomposition (EMD) based low rank kernel is also presented in this paper. As a new contribution to the previously performed literature survey this paper presents a more accurate solar irradiation prediction paradigm for distinctive weather conditions, and different time intervals varying from very short duration of 15 min to one day ahead. Also to improve the reliability of the KELM and to make it robust under noisy conditions and the presence of outliers in the data, a weight loss matrix has been derived using a non-parametric kernel density estimation method and incorporated in the new formulation (RKELM). A typical solar power experimental solar power station in India has been taken for detailed study showing clearly the accuracy and robustness of the proposed approach. For cross validation of the proposed model, solar irradiation data from a solar power plant located in the state of Florida has been implemented.