LAUSR

Rapidly increasing penetration of renewables, primarily wind and photovoltaics (PV), is causing a move away from fossil fuel in the Australian electric power industry. This study focuses on the South West Interconnected System in Western Australia. Several high (90% and 100%) renewables penetration scenarios have been modelled, comprising wind and PV supplemented with a small amount of biogas, and compared with a “like-for-like” fossil-fuel replacement scenario. Short-term off-river (closed cycle) pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) is utilised in some simulations as a large-scale conventional storage technology. The scenarios are examined by using a chronological dispatch model. An important feature of the modelling is that only technologies that have been already deployed on a large scale (>150 gigawatts) are utilised. This includes wind, PV and PHES. The modelling results demonstrate that 90–100% penetration by wind and PV electricity is compatible with a balanced grid. With the integration of off-river PHES, 90% renewables penetration is able to provide low-carbon electricity at competitive prices. Pumped hydro also facilitates a 100% renewables scenario which produces zero greenhouse gas emissions with attractive electricity prices. A sensitivity analysis shows the most important factors in the system cost are discount rate and wind turbine cost.