LAUSR

Abstract Trade flows between provinces have led to the transfer of embodied carbon emissions. Therefore, when formulating carbon emission reduction policies for a province, it's necessary to consider the carbon emissions implied in trade. In this study, we established an interprovincial carbon flow analysis framework based on multi-regional input-output model, and we used China's 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012 input-output data to make an empirical research of Hebei Province. The findings are as follows. Firstly, from 1997 to 2012, the embodied carbon emissions' net outflow of Hebei increased by 244.26 Mt, the number of the provinces that net inflowed carbon from Hebei increased from 18 to 22, and they extended from eastern coastal provinces and southern China to most parts of the country. Secondly, technological level and trade demand are the main factors affecting carbon emissions' net outflow, contributing −108.45 Mt and 352.71 Mt, respectively. On this basis, we developed a relationship model of the net outflow of carbon emission and commodity value to optimize the industrial development. Different from previous studies, our research has penetrated into every industry and every related province. We not only calculated the commodity transfer and embodied carbon transfer between Hebei Province and other provinces, and balanced the advantages and disadvantages of trade between key industries and provinces, then gave specific solutions and optimization measures, which has stronger practical meaning and guiding significance.