LAUSR

Abstract Accurate installed capacity forecasting can provide effective decision-making support for planning development strategies and establishing national electricity policies. First, considering the data limitation in quantity and accuracy, this paper proposes a multi-factor installed capacity forecasting framework combining the fuzzy time series method and support vector regression. Compared with four benchmark models, the proposed model shows advantages in installed capacity prediction. Second, the predictability dynamics of national installed capacity are explored from the perspective of country clusters. It is revealed that highly predictable countries usually obtain high forecasting accuracy with all forecasting models and are less sensitive to forecasting models. Using the k-means clustering method, this paper divides 136 sample countries into four categories according to the predictability. Third, based on the mean impact value analysis, this paper differentiates and ranks the importance of input variables on installed capacity development. The two most important factors influencing installed capacity are installed capacity development in the previous period and population. Overall, these results are of practical value to the operating decisions of electric power enterprises and the electricity plans of governments.