LAUSR

Abstract A factor that directly impacts the lifespan of a power transformer is the hot-spot temperature, and its monitoring is vital to prevent faults, reduce costs, keep the safety, and provide a reliable service to consumers. In this paper, we propose two forecasting models to predict the hot-spot temperature of power transformers. The first is the implementation of Set-Membership in the evolving Participatory Learning with Kernel Recursive Least Squares. And the second is a combination of the evolving Participatory Learning with Kernel Recursive Least Squares and the improved version of the Set-Membership concept, named Enhanced Set-Membership. Both Set-Membership and the Enhanced Set-Membership approaches are implemented to update the rate of change of the arousal index, which is a parameter that controls the creation of rules. A data set collected from an experimental transformer is adopted to evaluate the model’s performance. The obtained results are compared with the performance of the original evolving Participatory Learning with Kernel Recursive Least Squares and with the performance of other classical models suggested in the literature. The proposals have lower errors and a competitive number of final rules, suggesting that the models are efficient approaches to modeling complex data with high accuracy.