LAUSR

Abstract Electricity in Brazil is mainly supplied by renewable sources. However, thermal sources are necessary to meet the demand in periods of climatic adversity. The research aimed to identify the existing relationships among Brazilian generating sources and to examine the effects of these relationships for each source, using a system of dynamic equation with VAR modeling and parameters estimated by SUR. The variable analyzed was electricity amount generated (GWh), divided by: biomass; coal; fuels; hydropower; natural gas; nuclear; and wind power. Monthly values ​​were collected at the National Electric Energy Agency website from January 2000 to June 2019. The dynamic equations parameters were estimated by SUR, which provided more functional equations and efficient predictions. The scenario simulations made it possible to verify hydropower generation and its dependence on thermal sources. The adjusted system exposed the reverse effects to this dependence, which suggest an increase in the use of non-conventional renewable sources, such as biomass and solar energy. As another alternative to reduce the matrix thermal dependency, the possibility of encouraging thermal generation from natural gas was identified, as it is a low carbon source, and the development of energy storage solutions, such as batteries, to maintain the electricity supply stability.