LAUSR

Abstract Equipment aging has been a major concern among electric utilities’ planners, since quality of service can be put at risk. This paper proposes a new method that allows the effects of the aging of generators to be properly included into the reliability analysis of power systems. First, a new model for the failure rate capable of representing the stages of normal operation and wear-out, replacing the adoption of constant failure rates, is described. The effects of repairable and non-repairable (i.e., catastrophic) failures on the reliability assessment of generation systems are also discussed. The proposed method is built from the previous models using a sequential Monte Carlo simulation and variance reduction techniques. To validate the proposed method, the IEEE Reliability Test System is used with modifications in which different ages are defined for existing generating units that are progressively aging over the years. Several tests are described together with strategies for adopting preventive refurbishments and the corresponding results are duly discussed.