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Costly default and skewed business cycles

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Abstract We augment a simple Real Business Cycle model with financial intermediaries that may default on their liabilities and a financial friction generating social costs of default. We derive a… Click to show full abstract

Abstract We augment a simple Real Business Cycle model with financial intermediaries that may default on their liabilities and a financial friction generating social costs of default. We derive a closed-form solution for the general equilibrium of the economy, providing analytical results. Endogenous default generates a negative skew for aggregate variables and a positive skew for credit spreads, as documented in the empirical literature. Larger financial frictions strengthen asymmetry, which amplifies the welfare cost of fluctuations. Macro-prudential regulation alleviates both the cost of fluctuations and business-cycle asymmetry, at the expense of a steady-state distortion. Finally, we prove analytically the existence of an optimal level of regulation, which increases with the size of the financial friction.

Keywords: skewed business; default; business cycles; default skewed; business; costly default

Journal Title: European Economic Review
Year Published: 2021

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