LAUSR

Previous research has indicated that more complex model structures than the commonly used gamma model are needed to obtain an accurate prediction of the effect of multiple environmental conditions on the microbial growth rate. Due to the complexity associated with the development of such model structures, it is recommended that the model structure is compatible with a modular model building method. In this research, a gamma-interaction model was built to describe the combined effect of temperature, pH and water activity on the microbial growth rate of E. coli K12 based on a dataset of 68 bioreactor experiments. This novel interaction model was compared with the standard gamma model. The model structures were tested separately for the combined effects of (i) temperature and pH, (ii) pH and water activity, (iii) temperature and water activity and (iv) temperature, pH and water activity. Based on the results of this research, it was concluded that models for the combined effect of environmental conditions need to allow for sufficient flexibility for the description of combined effects of environmental conditions to obtain accurate model predictions. In the current study, this flexibility was successfully introduced by using the gamma-interaction model. A cross-validation study also demonstrated that the predictions of the interaction model are more robust with respect to the specific data used than the gamma model. As such, the gamma-interaction model provides food producers and food safety authorities with a more accurate and reliable tool for the prediction of the microbial growth rate as a function of multiple environmental conditions.