LAUSR

Abstract Hurricanes occur regularly along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the southern United States and can have intense ecological and economic impacts on forests. Frequent low-intensity fire plays a well-known role in many coastal plain upland forests, including longleaf pine (Pinus palustris). Hurricanes may also play a critical role in shaping these communities. Field studies investigating wind susceptibility of coastal tree species often rank longleaf pine among the most wind-resistant species. This assertion is usually based on analyses that evaluate whether the fraction of downed trees is greater than expected by chance. However, tree species’ associations with different soil types and landforms, and differences in tree size and spatial distribution can confound inferences. Accounting for tree, stand, and landscape factors can improve estimates of species differences in probability of wind damage. Following Hurricane Michael in 2018, we used observations from more than 3000 trees and generalized linear mixed models to investigate how tree-level factors (species and DBH), stand-level factors (stand density and soil type), and landscape-level factors (wind exposure and landscape configuration) affect tree vulnerability to hurricane winds in a longleaf pine-dominated landscape. Probability of damage varied between species, was dependent on soil type, and increased with increasing diameter for all species. Longleaf pine was in the lower range of treefall probability for all soil types and showed the lowest variability in wind susceptibility, confirming findings from other studies. However, we observed important interactions between species and soil types. Oak (Quercus spp.) species were more susceptible to treefall on drier soils, while pine (Pinus spp.) species were more resistant, suggesting that hurricanes, along with frequent fire, may play a role in shaping the landscape-scale structure of southeastern pine systems. Understanding the role of hurricanes in disturbance-prone forests can provide insight on the ecological processes structuring diverse coastal forest systems while informing activities critical for their management and conservation. Additionally, multi-aged silvicultural approaches may serve to increase the hurricane resilience of forests.