LAUSR

Abstract Collaborative participatory policy approaches based on foresight methodology have recently been proposed as promising governance tools to achieve sustainability in general, and address and manage challenges of integrating competing demands on forest land use (e.g., timber production, nature protection, recreation) in particular. Their main argument is that participatory processes will bring policy actors together. Based on long- and short-term future-oriented thinking and actions, they will overcome their previous value-laden and interest-based conflicts through informed communication, deliberation, policy learning and mutual cooperation. But do policy actors learn when they are thinking, debating and shaping the ‘forest futures’ they want to achieve or avoid? To what extent are current beliefs, values, worldviews, and conflict structures projected onto the future? What are their impacts on policy learning today? This paper addresses these research questions from a knowledge-based perspective of relevant policy learning theories. We trace changes and stability in beliefs, values (perception) and behavior (cooperation/conflict) among the involved policy actors. We assess to what extent future-oriented thinking and discussions contribute to, or inhibit, policy learning today. Empirically, the paper is informed by three case studies of regional ‘forest futures’ processes in Germany. They include forest landscapes in Upper Palatinate and South of Munich in Bavaria, and the Black Forest National Park in Baden-Wurttemberg. They represent different cases in terms of levels of stakeholder conflicts, integrative/segregative forest land use approaches, and the rural/urban divide. The paper is based on a qualitative analysis of interviews and documents about past and future forest land use, and observation of participatory scenario-building and back-casting workshops during 2011–2014. In our analysis, we found that forest policy actors adhered to their pre-existing beliefs and remained divided in terms of present and future aspects of sustainable forest management. That is, we observed no substantial or only strategic policy learning among the involved policy actors. We explain these findings in terms of competing actors' belief systems and worldviews that lead to competing understandings and expectations of ‘forest futures’. We discuss our research against the theoretical propositions and in view of the state-of-the art. We draw conclusions relevant for scholars and policymakers interested in collaborative policy learning processes, and suggest possible topics for further research.