LAUSR

Abstract Since alien species may threaten native ecosystems when becoming invasive, one of the main challenges is try to predict their potential spread. Despite bees are essential pollinators and provide important ecosystem services in their native areas, outside these areas they could represent a risk for the local bee fauna, e.g. by competing for resources or by transmitting pathogens, as it was observed for species of Megachile, the bee genus with the highest number of recorded alien species. Here, using two complementary methods (Multidimensional Envelope procedure (MDE) and the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt)), we aim to explore environmental niche as well as to identify potential worldwide distribution of the giant resin bee Megachile sculpturalis, native to Asia and recently introduced in North America and Europe. The two methodological approaches predict an important expansion for the species and reveal a preference for areas of Palearctic and Nearctic regions with reduced temperature fluctuations and moderate precipitation regimes. The Southern hemisphere seems not having good conditions for this species. Estimations for the future (2070) predict a further, though limited expansion to northern areas in the North hemisphere. However, during roughly 25 years of spreading outside its native range, M. sculpturalis clearly expanded the range of inhabitable environmental conditions, which may increase its potential invasiveness in a pattern difficult to predict using only correlative methods. Physiological and ecological data are necessary to better assess the potential niche of this bee species and in consequence to better predict its future spreading dynamics.