LAUSR

Abstract Mangrove wetlands, which provide critical ecosystem services in tropical and subtropical coastal regions around the world, are increasingly threatened, with total mangrove area declining steeply in recent decades. Focusing on the mangrove wetlands of the Cayman Islands, we use remote sensing and spatial analysis to document past and project future trends of mangrove clearance, and 57 interviews with key business and political figures and members of environmental NGOs to shed light on the social forces driving these trends. The analysis shows a loss of approximately 27.9% of mangrove wetlands present in 1965 as of 2013 (7072.7 ha versus 9809.8 ha) on Grand Cayman. At this rate of loss, the island’s mangroves, excluding the 1668.9 ha of mangrove wetlands currently protected, could be lost by 2108. Analysis of the satellite and aerial images and the interview results suggest that the destruction of mangrove forests is attributable in part to consumption generated by Grand Cayman’s financial sector. The demand for real estate by international investors initially attracted by the island’s financial services, along with that of the professionals employed to provide these services, has been one of the key drivers of mangrove wetland clearance. Interview results suggest the hypothesis that these dynamics have persisted due to the alignment of political forces that has emerged in their defense: a state structurally-dependent on development fees for revenues and dependent for political support on landowners and the development and real estate industries.