LAUSR

In the past, Aedes aegypti was present in Southern Europe. Although the mosquito was eradicated from the Mediterranean region, its regional ecotype survived the second half of the 20th century in the eastern Black Sea area. The aim of the study was to model the changes in the altering climatic suitability, ontogenetic development time and the survival rate of Aedes aegypti from first-stage larvae to adulthood in Southern Europe. The modelled present climatic suitability patterns of the mosquito show that large areas of the lower altitude Mediterranean regions, including the coastal areas of the Balkan Peninsula, South France, and large regions of the Apennines and the Iberian Peninsulas could be suitable for Ae. aegypti. The future (2041–2060 and 2061–2080) projections predict the potential northward shift of the northern occurrence of the species in the circum-Mediterranean and Black Sea areas. Both, the potential development time, and survival rate of Ae. aegypti in the late 19th and the early 20th century could be like in the present times along the Mediterranean coast. The current climatic conditions cannot explain the absence of the mosquito in wide areas of the Mediterranean and sub-Mediterranean ecoregions. The future models predict the notable increase in the development time and survival rate of the mosquito in the southern and central regions of Europe. In general, the container ports of the Alboran, Balearic, and Aegean seas seem to be the most suitable sites for the re-colonization of the mosquito, and such northern parts of the Mediterranean Sea like the Gulf of Lion, the Ligurian, and Adriatic Seas are in less extent.