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Mathematical modeling and the transmission dynamics in predicting the Covid-19 - What next in combating the pandemic

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Abstract Mathematical predictions in combating the epidemics are yet to reach its perfection. The rapid spread, the ways, and the procedures involved in containment of a pandemic demand the earliest… Click to show full abstract

Abstract Mathematical predictions in combating the epidemics are yet to reach its perfection. The rapid spread, the ways, and the procedures involved in containment of a pandemic demand the earliest understanding in finding solutions in line with the habitual, physiological, biological, and environmental aspects of life with better modeling and predictions. Epidemiology models are key tools in public health management programs despite having a high level of uncertainty in each one of these models. This paper describes the outcome and the challenges of SIR, SEIR, SEIRU, SIRD, SLIAR, ARIMA, SIDARTHE, etc models used in prediction of spread, peak, and reduction of Covid-19 cases.

Keywords: transmission dynamics; dynamics predicting; covid next; mathematical modeling; modeling transmission; predicting covid

Journal Title: Infectious Disease Modelling
Year Published: 2020

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