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Mathematical models for assessing vaccination scenarios in several provinces in Indonesia

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To mitigate more casualties from the COVID-19 outbreak, this study aimed to assess optimal vaccination scenarios, considering some existing healthcare conditions and some assumptions, by developing SIQRD (Susceptible-Infected-Quarantine-Recovery-Death) models for… Click to show full abstract

To mitigate more casualties from the COVID-19 outbreak, this study aimed to assess optimal vaccination scenarios, considering some existing healthcare conditions and some assumptions, by developing SIQRD (Susceptible-Infected-Quarantine-Recovery-Death) models for Jakarta, West Java, and Banten, in Indonesia. The models include an age-structured dynamic transmission model that naturally could give different treatments among age groups of population. The simulation results show that the timing and period's length of the vaccination should be well planned and prioritizing particular age groups will give a significant impact on the total number of casualties.

Keywords: scenarios several; assessing vaccination; vaccination; models assessing; mathematical models; vaccination scenarios

Journal Title: Infectious Disease Modelling
Year Published: 2021

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