LAUSR

Abstract This paper analyzes the relationship between environmental migration and social vulnerability of 30 municipalities affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster in Miyagi Prefecture. Environmental migrants, identified as official migrants who moved to other municipalities after the impact of the natural hazard, are separated from displaced persons living in the temporary housing using the Japanese Residence Registration System. Firstly, the impact of the disaster on migration is estimated using an interrupted time series analysis. Subsequently, migration estimates are regressed using municipality-level data on the impact of the disaster and social vulnerability indicators. In addition, three counterfactuals were created where migration in the absence of the disaster was estimated using different forecasting methods. The results reveal that there appeared to be a significant increase in out-migration by up to 33.3% attributable to the earthquake and tsunami disaster. Moreover, estimates indicate that municipalities with lower financial strength, higher incomes, and smaller shares of part-time farmers, or primary labor workers, were more likely to produce more environmental migrants following a disaster. The findings provide empirical evidence linking environmental migration with certain social vulnerability indicators which contribute to better understanding the nature of migration following a natural disaster.