LAUSR

Abstract With the increase in water demand and decrease in the available water supply, water is gradually becoming an important factor affecting the development of China's energy industry. Therefore, understanding the energy–water nexus is conducive to effectively manage both resources. In this study, China's virtual water (VW) transfer embodied in electricity flow among sub-grids in 2016, 2030, and 2050 was evaluated based on a large amount of data collected from multiple sources. Results show that water consumption for electricity generation in 2016 was 21.1 billion m3, which accounted for approximately 3.5% of the total national water consumption. This value is expected to increase to 27.4 billion m3 and 28.7 billion m3 by 2030 and 2050, respectively. In 2016, the ratio of VW transfer to total water consumption for electricity generation was 9%, whereas this ratio will increase to 12% in 2030 and 13% in 2050. This means that China will rely more on electricity transfer and VW transfer to meet regional electricity demand in the future. Owing to mismatched distribution of water and energy, China's most water-deficient regions will become major VW exporters in the future. Moreover, although the increase in electricity-related water consumption can be met in most electric sub-grids by 2030, the northern and northwest grids lack sufficient water to meet increased demand for electricity-related water. Some measures are proposed to ensure China's energy security based on the findings of this study.