LAUSR

Abstract Identifying the potential key factors of energy-related carbon emissions from the urban perspective is an important prerequisite and helpful for China to promote low-carbon city and achieve its reduction targets. Although most studies have explored the driving forces behind carbon emissions, there is still considerable room to improve the methods of previous research. This study therefore built an extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model, combined with partial least squares regression (PLSR) to analyse the influencing factors of city-level carbon emissions from 2008 to 2017 in Fujian province, China. Compared to most methods used in previous studies, the STIRPAT-PLSR model can eliminate multi-collinearity and residuals, which enables it to display better decomposition characteristics. The results revealed that the total carbon emissions in Fujian province was 16577 × 104 tonnes of carbon in 2017, with an increase of 39.85% compared with that in 2008. In terms of spatial distribution, carbon emissions in the coastal regions were more than those in the inland areas. Meanwhile, the positive drivers of urban carbon emissions in Fujian include population, urbanization rate, per capita GDP, primary industry ratio, secondary industry ratio, and energy intensity, with cumulative contributions (mean value) of 95.21, 110.97, 103.95, 99.89, 109.17 and 96.35%, respectively. Furthermore, the tertiary industry ratio displays an inhibition effect, and every 1% increase in the tertiary sector’s share of GDP is associated with a 0.776% (mean value) reduction in carbon emissions in Fujian. Additionally, city-scale spatial differences in and distribution patterns of carbon emissions within the same province, which will aid decision making in terms of carbon trading and ecological compensation mechanisms. Therefore, the policymakers should formulate reduction policies according to the characteristics of the city based on the vital driving factors, including industrial restructuring and upgrading, promoting eco-urbanization construction, which can be considered as a valid solution for win-win targets of regional economic development and carbon emissions reduction.