LAUSR

Abstract It still remains uncertainty whether China’s future investment is conducive to carbon reduction of Belt and Road (B&R) region or not. Here, the possible impact of China’s investment was revealed by comparing the CO2 emissions of B&R region in different Chinese investment scenarios. The results showed that CO2 emissions of B&R region will cumulatively increase by 1973 Gt in 2018–2100 in the “No-Chinese Investment Scenario (NIS)”. Regionally, the India (IND), Middle East Central Asia (MECAsia), and Southeast Asia and its surrounding (SEAsia) has the largest increment. Comparing with the NIS, the CO2 emissions of B&R region will cumulatively decrease by 44.16 Gt and 79.48 Gt, respectively, in the “Business-as-usual Chinese Investment Scenario (BIS)” and “Strengthening Chinese Investment Scenario (SIS)”. Regionally, the cumulative CO2 emissions of all subregions will decrease in BIS and SIS, of which SEAsia and MECAsia have the largest decrement. Technique and structural effects of China’s investment have positive impact on cumulative CO2 emission reduction of B&R region, especially in the structural effect. The scale effect has the negative contribution, but it cannot neutralize the positive impact induced from technique and structural effects. As a result, China’s future investment is conductive to reducing CO2 emission of B&R region and holding the temperature increase below 2 °C.