LAUSR

Abstract Recently, water has become a valued resource amongst human beings due to the increasing demand for water supply on the one hand and the decreasing level of water resources on the other. As an initial step to cope with the challenge of long-term water supply and demand stability in a sustainable and resilient way, measuring, analyzing, and forecasting useful indicators is required to motivate policy-making. The primary goal of this study is to identify and forecast water security level using the grey prediction method. The results are presented for a time-series analysis of the KPIs for a water security unit in Saskatchewan, Canada. This study's main contribution is the application of the grey model, GM (1,1), to forecast the required KPIs of water security units in Saskatchewan. In this case, seven KPIs were considered based on the availability of data. These KPIs were categorized according to water consumption, quality, and risk points of view. The results show that while one KPI maintains a constant trend, five KPIs show an increasing trend, and the other KPI shows a decreasing trend over time. Examining such trends of the KPIs can help decision-makers provide useful information for assessing and forecasting the water security level in Saskatchewan of Canada.