LAUSR

Abstract Buildings contribute to about 40% of direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions and more than a third of energy consumption globally. Sustainable building standards and efficiency standards are two measures to reduce such emissions and energy consumption in buildings. While better standards improve the sustainability of new buildings, the impact of these actions depends on the ability to improve the existing building stock. Understanding the dynamics of adopting efficiency and sustainable building measures is essential for setting policy targets and mechanisms. This paper proposes a system dynamics model for assessing the energy savings potential from adopting sustainable building and energy efficiency measurements in buildings in systems with incomplete and uncertain information, using prospective scenarios. The model combines a dynamic diffusion model with an aggregate model for the building stock. The model is calibrated for estimating energy savings in the residential and commercial building stock of the four main metropolitan areas of Colombia: Bogota, Medellin, Cali, and Barranquilla. Simulation results show that the maximum energy savings potential is approximately 12% but could be below 8% if rebound effects are considered. Results show that energy savings are limited if there are no policies for existing old buildings.