LAUSR

Purpose: To evaluate the associations between strained ICU capacity and patient outcomes. Methods: Multi‐center population‐based cohort study of nine integrated ICUs in Alberta, Canada. Path‐analysis modeling was adopted to investigate direct and indirect associations between strain (available beds ≤1; occupancy ≥95%) and outcomes. Mixed‐effects multivariate regression was used to measure the association between strain and acuity (APACHE II score), and both acuity and strain measures on ICU mortality and length of stay. Results: 12,265 admissions comprise the study cohort. Available beds ≤1 and occupancy ≥95% occurred for 22.3% and 17.0% of admissions. Lower bed availability was associated with higher APACHE II score (p < 0.0001). The direct effect of ≤1 available beds at ICU admission on ICU mortality was 11.6% (OR 1.116; 95% CI, 0.995–1.252). Integrating direct and indirect effects resulted in a 16.5% increased risk of ICU mortality (OR 1.165; 95% CI, 1.036–1.310), which exceeded the direct effect by 4.9%. Findings were similar with strain defined as occupancy ≥95%. Strain was associated with shorter ICU stay, primarily mediated by greater acuity. Conclusions: Strained capacity was associated with increased ICU mortality, partly mediated through greater illness acuity. Future work should consider both the direct and indirect relationships of strain on outcomes. Highlights:Strained ICU capacity may contribute to suboptimal quality of care and may modify clinician behaviors and care processes.This population‐based study used path‐analysis to integrate both direct and indirect effects strain may exert on outcomes.Strain, when defined as ≤1 bed available or occupancy of ≥95%, was common at ICU admission, occurring in 22.3% and 17.0%.In integrate analyses, there were small but significant associations between strained ICU capacity and ICU mortality and ICU stay.Future studies, including strategies to manage, should consider both direct and indirect influence strain exerts on outcomes.