Considering scenarios of future changes in land use have the potential to support policy-makers in drafting environmental laws to reconcile the demands of multiple land uses. The Pantanal, one of… Click to show full abstract
Considering scenarios of future changes in land use have the potential to support policy-makers in drafting environmental laws to reconcile the demands of multiple land uses. The Pantanal, one of the largest wetlands in the world, has been undergoing rapid land use changes, and does not yet have any integrated environmental legislation on Legal Reserve for entire region (LR - minimum percentage of native vegetation required within private properties). The aim of this paper was to generate future vegetation loss scenarios for the Pantanal based on four LR values: (i) BAU: Business as usual, which considers existing laws: Native Vegetation Protection Law and State Decree; (ii) LRE: LR elimination owing to a bill recently proposed; (iii) LR50: which considers the bill proposing 50% of LR for the Pantanal; and (iv) LR80: our proposed levels of 80% of LR for the lowlands and 35% for the plateau (following values in the Amazon). Based on native vegetation loss from each scenario, we estimated the soil loss and sediment yield to rivers. Our results show that LRE would increase native vegetation loss in the Pantanal by as much as 139% when compared to the BAU, whereas increasing LR levels would reduce conversion values by 29% (LR80). Elimination of the LR would increase soil erosion and sediment production by up to 7% and 10%, respectively, compared to BAU. Based on native vegetation loss from each scenario, we estimated the soil loss and sediment yield to rivers with our data showing more than 90% of the sediment transported to the lowland originating from the plateau. The LR80 indicates a reduction in soil nutrient replacement costs of 10% compared to BAU, while in the LR50 these costs decrease by 1.5%, and in the LRE would increase of 8%. Our results show that abolishing current protections would have substantial impacts on avulsion processes, on several economic activities (tourism, fishery, cattle raising, etc.) and negative impacts for biodiversity conservation and would bring losses to agriculture in the Pantanal. Hence, our study brings clearly evidence of LR importance and need to expand it in this sensitive wetland.
               
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