LAUSR

Abstract The Great Lakes Basin plays an important role in the economy and society of the United States and Canada, and climate change in this region may affect many sectors. In this study, six GCM simulations were downscaled to resolve the Great Lakes using a regional climate model (RCM) with 25 km × 25 km resolution. This model was used to project changes in temperature and precipitation during the mid-century (2040–2069) and late-century (2070–2099) over the Great Lakes basin region with reference to a baseline of 1980–2009. The whole-basin annual mean temperature is projected to increase 2.1 °C to 4.0 °C above the baseline during the mid-century, and 3.3 °C to 6.0 °C during the late-century. Summer temperatures in the southern portion of the basin are projected to increase more than the temperatures in the northern portion of the basin; whereas winter temperatures are projected to increase more in the north than in the south. Estimates of the whole-basin annual precipitation with respect to the baseline vary from −3.0% to 16.5% during the mid-century and −2.9% to 21.6% during the late-century, respectively. Future summer precipitation in southwestern areas of this region is expected to decrease by 20%–30% compared to the baseline, but winter precipitation (mostly snow) is expected to increase by 11.6% and 15.4% during the mid-century and late-century. This study highlights the effects of the large expanses of water (such as the Great Lakes) on regional climate projections and the associated uncertainties of climate change.