LAUSR

Abstract A fast calculation of the reliability is meaningful to the in-line inspection of corroding natural gas pipelines. However, the traditional Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method is time consuming for the low possibilities of the pipeline failure. The artificial neural network(ANN) is preferable for the complex nonlinear situation. An optimization of artificial neural network modeling methodology for the reliability assessment of corroding natural gas pipelines is proposed in this paper. To reduce the influence of training sets random behaviors on the calculation results, some algorithms are used to optimize the sequence of the training samples and the initial parameters of ANN models. The optimized model is applied to the reliability assessment of a corroded pipe with two successive inline inspections. According to the physical parameters of the pipeline, the trend of corroding pipeline reliability in time is predicted. The comparison between the trained ANN model, the MCS method and non-optimized ANN model shows the advantages the proposed modeling process. The methodology given in this paper is general and it can be applied to evaluate the reliability of other kind of structure safeties in practical systems.