LAUSR

Abstract In the natural gas gathering and transportation station, bolt-gasket-flange connection (BGFC) is the main connection mode, but due to its large number, the micro-leakage may result in serious consequences. For this reason, early BGFC micro-leakage evaluation can effectively assist decision-making and prevent the occurrence of accidents. To solve the problem of insufficient field data collection, we proposed a Noisy-OR gate based fuzzy fault tree approach, and calculated the corresponding minimum cut sets and the highest risk factors. Moreover, sensitivity analysis (SA) was used to determine that material problems (wear and corrosion of the sealing surface), man-made operation problems (bolts and flanges) and working conditions (pipe vibration and temperature fluctuations) are the key factors that contributing to the BGFC micro-leakage. In brief, the combination of the fuzzy fault tree analysis and Noisy-OR gate is an effective approach for BGFC micro-leakage evaluation, which is of great significance to the micro-leakage analysis, safe operation, and risk assessment of the gas station.