LAUSR

Abstract Modeling complex systems as networks of interacting elements has gained increased attention in recent years. So far, network modeling in manufacturing and logistics has often focused on the description of system properties. In the data-driven world of smart manufacturing, creating material flow network models becomes a lot easier due to the ubiquitous availability of shop floor and transportation data. At the same time, these highly flexible and continuously changing smart manufacturing systems become less predictive and thus less controllable. This article investigates how the stochastic block model (SBM), a network model with a stochastic description of interconnections, can be applied to model and predict material flows in manufacturing systems. We show how to utilize its properties to forecast the dynamic development of the structure of such systems. The complete process from network modeling using material flow data to the prediction of the future development of the network is demonstrated. Different SBM variants are tested using six company data sets and evaluated in competition with classical machine learning methods for prediction. Our results show that selected SBM variants achieve the best performance in prediction in most scenarios and thus have the potential to play an important role in the management of future dynamic manufacturing systems.