LAUSR

OBJECTIVE To determine the proportion of women in Robson group 5 (RG5) who were eligible for a trial of labour after Caesarean (TOLAC) and, among eligible candidates, identify determinants of having a TOLAC and subsequent vaginal delivery (VD). METHODS This population-based cohort study used data derived from the Nova Scotia Atlee Perinatal Database. Deliveries from 1998-2014 to women in RG5 (≥1 previous CS with a singleton term cephalic fetus) were included. Eligibility for a TOLAC was based on SOGC criteria. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify characteristics independently associated with TOLAC and VD. The characteristics associated with VD were used in a logistic model to predict the theoretical probability of VD in women who did not have a TOLAC. RESULTS Of the 15 111 deliveries in RG5, 75.3% were by CS. Of the 14 763 eligible women, 5488 (37.2%) had a TOLAC, of which 3739 (68.1%) resulted in VD. Predictors of VD included high area-level income and either a CS without labour or a spontaneous VD in the preceding pregnancy. While mode of previous delivery also predicted TOLAC among eligible women, high area-level income was associated with reduced odds of TOLAC. The probability of VD in women who did not undergo TOLAC was estimated to be 47.1%, and the lowest CS rate attainable in RG5 was estimated at 46.3%. CONCLUSIONS Sociodemographic factors such as income and previous mode of delivery were associated with the rates of TOLAC and subsequent VD in eligible women, and suggest that the Caesarean section rate in RG5 could be safely reduced.