LAUSR

Abstract Air pollution has been linked to 491,000 deaths in Europe annually and diesel vehicles are one of the major sources of two deadly air pollutants, PM2.5 (Particulate Matter) and NOx (Oxides of Nitrogen). Ireland has the highest number of newly registered diesel vehicles in Europe with a share of 43.57% in the overall fleet which is expected to increase to 73.9% by 2025. This will have significant health and financial impacts, especially in the urban areas. The present study quantifies the environmental, financial and health burdens from cars, Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) and buses in Dublin under the existing conditions and estimates the potential impact of the increasing numbers of diesel cars, LCVs and buses following the current trend projected over the next decade. As a preventative measure, the present study examines the impact of banning diesel vehicles older than 20 years from 2018 through the initiation of a phase-out policy. Furthermore, the impacts of a policy to ban new diesel vehicle sales from the year 2025 is also estimated. In both future scenarios, the preventative measures show significant savings in terms of reductions in NOx and PM2.5 emissions which were found to be 47% and 52% respectively in the year 2030 compared to the year 2015 levels. Additionally, this reduction will amount to savings of 300 DALYs and €43.8 million. Consequently, the results of this study make a strong case for policies and investments aimed at reducing the environmental impact caused by urban transportation and improving public health.