LAUSR

Abstract Many studies have provided strong evidence of residents' support for the characteristics of transit-oriented development (TOD) neighbourhoods, but few have explicitly investigated the question of whether these preferences translate into their actual choices. How many households are experiencing a state of residential mismatch between preferred and actual neighbourhoods? What trade-offs have they made in residential location choices? We draw on data from a 2017 residential location choice survey in Kitchener Waterloo (KW), Canada, and employ latent class analysis (LCA) to address these questions. The light-rail transit (LRT) corridor encompassing the area that is 800 m surrounding LRT stops is defined as the TOD area. This study finds empirical evidence of TOD preferences in mid-sized cities and further uncovers latent demand for TOD neighbourhoods during the LRT construction phase. 37% of respondents hold strong TOD preferences but purchased outside TOD areas. These households are primarily young families (aged 25–34) with children and represent a possible missing target in TOD housing supply in our study area. Our findings provide support for building more “missing middle” intensified family housing in TOD areas of mid-sized cities.