LAUSR

Objectives: To estimate the economic impact considering the deaths by COVID-19, depressive conditions, and the investment of the Brazilian government to control the pandemic Methods: The perspective is that of the government of Brazil Mortality data are those of the Brazilian government until June 26, 2020 We calculate the potential years of productive life lost from the number of deaths for the age group of 20 to 65 years Next, we estimate the reduction in Brazilian GDP in the coming years due to deaths The model assumes that everyone would work until age 65, and there would be no death from any cause We made a projection of GDP per capita until the year 2,060 based on historical data from IBGE We consider that there will be a reduction of 11 80% in the national GDP for the year 2020, we apply a discount of 5% In addition, we added a loss of productivity due to depression with a prevalence of 14 60% that resulted in an average of 35 10% loss of productivity per capita over two years after the pandemic Failure to perform isolation was simulated by exponentially projecting the number of deaths curve considering data from the first 100 days after the first death The Brazilian government's expenditure on COVID-19 was consulted on the National Treasury website on July 6, 2020 Results: 48,041 deaths occurred in Brazil that could generating an economic impact of R$337,491,971,541 85 If we had not done any isolation, we could reach 105,298 with an economic impact of R$ 479,748,815,231 27 Conclusions: The isolation carried out in Brazil prevented 57,257 deaths and could save R$ 149,853,453,168 81 This emphasizes the importance of carrying out stricter isolation measures