LAUSR

Abstract Analysis of land use and land cover change (LULCC) offers useful results for the determination and implementation of land management policies. In this study, the change in the amount of arable land in Tanzania and its main determinants were identified, and suggestions for agricultural land management policy were put forward. For this purpose, datasets related to spatial, biophysical, demographic, and socio-economic variables that can affect the amount of arable land were prepared and analysed with appropriate econometric models. The coefficients of the established models were estimated by the Engle-Granger method and according to the results of the forecast; the increase in amount of variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), the quantity of exported goods, annual population growth and the amount of arable land per capita cause a positive effect in the amount of total arable land compared to an increase in other land use areas such as residential settlement areas, infrastructure land areas, while the increase in the presence of forested land has a negative effect on the amount of arable land. On the other hand, the results of the Granger causality test, conducted to analyse the causality relationships among the GDP, annual population growth, residential areas and other lands and arable land have determined that there is causality of residential areas and other lands to arable land with annual population growth. According to the results of the research, the demographic and socio-economic factors have been determined to have a greater influence on the change in the amount of arable land in Tanzania. In this context, it is possible to contribute to the sustainability of land resources by developing non-agricultural activities and opportunities by reducing population pressure on the land, as well as developing efforts towards land ownership and tenure systems in rural areas and urban fringe premises.