LAUSR

Abstract Despite having been affected by several stages of exhumation during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic, the contemporary stress state of the East Irish Sea Basin (EISB) is poorly characterised. As the basin is mature in terms of exploitation of hydrocarbons, future exploration beyond the conventional Sherwood Sandstone Group reservoir (Triassic) necessitates a greater understanding of the in situ stress field, while proposed natural gas storage and carbon sequestration schemes also require detailed stress field information. Using petroleum well data, the in situ stress field of the EISB has been characterised to assess the mechanical seal integrity. A strike-slip stress regime most-likely prevails in the basin, meaning the Maximum Horizontal Stress (SHmax) is the greatest of the principal stresses. Interpretation of stress orientation data suggests that SHmax is oriented 152° ± 12°, consistent with mean stress orientations across the wider region associated with plate boundary forces. Some degree of structural control appears to influence the orientation of SHmax, with orientations locally aligned sub-parallel to major Permo-Triassic basin-bounding faults. Fault reactivation risk is evaluated through modelling the pore pressure increase required to induce failure on pre-existing faults. Vertical faults striking 30° from SHmax are optimally-oriented to become reactivated under elevated pore pressure conditions. For any project relying on an element of fault seal for the containment of buoyant fluids at the average reservoir depth of 800 m, pore pressure increase should be less than 3.3 MPa to avoid reactivating pre-existing optimally-oriented faults. Higher pressure increases would be required to initiate reactivation of faults with other orientations. Vertical faults striking perpendicular to SHmax are least likely to become reactivated, and in the absence of halite, seal integrity would instead be limited by caprock strength and capillary-entry pressure. Major faults affecting the basin have been analysed for their slip tendency (ratio of shear to normal stress), which provides an indication of their susceptibility to become reactivated. Although the analysis is limited due to lack of an accurate 3D representation of the fault network, the results suggest that many of the fault orientations observed in the EISB exhibit high slip tendencies, including N–S striking faults to the north and west of the East Deemster Fault, where the SHmax orientation is NW–SE. Faults striking perpendicular to SHmax, such as the Lagman Fault, are least likely to become reactivated due to higher normal stresses that inhibit frictional sliding, while faults striking parallel or very close to SHmax also exhibit low slip tendency as they are not subjected to significant shear stresses.