LAUSR

The annually recurring Yellow Sea green tide causes significant economic, social, and ecological impacts in China. Currently, the magnitude of Yellow Sea green tide is usually evaluated according to the snap shot maximum algal coverage area or artificially removed algal biomass. However, this method ignores growth of the alga Ulva prolifera and thus needs improvement. We build a model to predict algal growth in drifting from upstream and the potential muaximum biomass of green tide. The results suggest that the potential maximum biomass is significantly higher than those estimated merely from maximum algal coverage area, particularly for years with extended period of algal loading in the upstream. Our method improves the evaluation of the magnitude of green tide and provides a scientific basis for developing effective countermeasures to reduce the persistent disaster.