LAUSR

Abstract Earthquakes are considered as the major trigger of submarine landslides. This study analyzes the large-scale seismic seafloor stability in the South China Sea (SCS), taking into consideration the earthquake probability and spatial distribution of seismicity and seafloor soil properties. For this cause, the geographical, seismic, and seafloor soil characteristics are first determined. The digital elevation model (DEM) of the study area is established using the geographic information system (GIS). Large-scale Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) maps under different exceedance probabilities (EPs) are derived using the Chinese Probability Seismic Hazard Analysis (CPSHA) method. Three-dimension continuous models for seafloor soil properties are obtained using a proposed best-fit distribution-based Kriging method. With this information, the large-scale seafloor stability under different EPs is evaluated with an infinite slope model in the study area of the SCS. The proposed large-scale seismic seafloor stability is validated against recorded earthquake-induced submarine landslides. The analysis shows that the seafloor stability is found to be highly nonuniform, and the study area can be divided into three main parts based on their distinct seafloor stabilities. This study sheds new light on the large-scale seafloor stability, and can assist the development of ocean engineering projects in the SCS.