LAUSR

Abstract Oceanic fluxes through Fram Strait may significantly contribute to climate variations in the Arctic. However, their observations are difficult. Here, a 26-year numerical model simulation is used to derive oceanic proxies for interannual variability in heat fluxes through Fram Strait. It is found that variability in the cross-slope gradient of sea surface height (SSH) across the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) can explain about 90% of the variance of winter and annual mean volume transports of Atlantic water at 79°N. Given the strong covariance between the simulated heat flux in the slope current along Svalbard and the corresponding volume transport, variability of the SSH gradient across the WSC is also found to account for about 80% of the variance of heat flux associated with the northward flow through Fram Strait. Moreover, variations in the SSH gradient across the Arctic Slope Current (ASC) northeast of Svalbard at 31°E explain about 85% of the variance of heat flux there and about 80% of the variance of the net heat flux upstream through Fram Strait. Finally, about 85% and 75% of the variance of the net heat flux through Fram Strait is associated with anomalies of the eastward volume transport and depth-averaged core velocity in the ASC, respectively. These relations indicate that monitoring of the flow in the ASC, even with a single current meter mooring, or of the SSH gradient across this current derived from either in situ or remote measurements may provide useful proxies for the heat import to the Arctic Ocean.