LAUSR

Abstract In this work the fundamentals and application results of an uncertainty analysis of a loss of coolant and loss of cooling accident in a spent fuel pool are presented. The spent fuel pool was modeled with TRACE V5.0 Patch 5 using a VESSEL 3D component in Cartesian coordinates. A more detailed nodalization was necessary as compared with a previous study of the same accident scenario to better develop the uncertainty analysis in the framework of the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach. First, the model was calibrated using Main Yankee spent fuel pool experimental data of temperatures and flows measured in steady state conditions. Using the calibrated model, the analysis of the accident was performed considering uncertainty in boundary conditions and in all the coefficients included in the TRACE uncertainty quantification data module. The figure of merit selected in this work is the time at which the cladding oxidation reaches 0.17 times the cladding thickness before oxidation (CFR 50.46 b2). The uncertainty analysis was performed using Wilks’ method and surrogate models. In particular, the Elastic Net surrogate model has demonstrated its potential not only to predict the evolution of the figure of merit in an appropriate way with lower computational effort than the Wilks’ method but also its capability to identify the most relevant uncertain parameters, such as the fuel and cladding specific heats, rod internal pressure coefficient, burst temperature coefficient, a group of fluid regime heat transfer coefficients, the cladding metal-water reaction rate coefficient and the cladding tolerance for the average cores. In addition, the surrogate model provides more information of the distribution of the evolution of the figure of merit. The estimations of the 5/95 tolerance limits, both with the Wilks’ method and with the surrogate models, are very similar, ranging from 30.432 to 30.461 h.